Rachel Meltzer

Retail on the Ground and on the Books: Vacancies and the (mis)Match between Retail Activity and Regulated Land Uses

This paper starts by testing the prevailing knowledge around urban retail demise and documenting the pattern of retail occupancy for large cities across the U.S. over the past three decades. We leverage rich data on retail leases for a varied sample of cities to depict patterns of retail proliferation and contraction across a range of urban contexts. Second, we investigate whether institutional context, and specifically zoning, has played a role in patterns of urban retail occupancy (and vacancy) over the past two decades. Using another set of rich microdata on parcels and land use in New York City and Los Angeles, we correspond land uses with retail leases over time and across space to understand how well the local land use regime reflects actual retail dynamics on the ground. During the decades when retail leasing slows down and rents decline or flatten, we find evidence of increased zoning designation and building of retail infrastructure. This misalignment between retail market activity and regulated retail space suggests an oversupply of retail space and offers some explanation for the recent proliferation of retail vacancies.

Our analysis considers broad citywide patterns and does not elucidate likely variations in market and land use alignment at the neighborhood level. Nevertheless, findings from our research can shed light on the interaction between regulation and markets and specifically inform land use planning around retail and mixed uses. If the utility of certain commercial uses is changing over time, then zoning and comprehensive planning should respond accordingly. As cities emerge from the pandemic and adjust to new work-live patterns, planning for the volume and spatial distribution of retail will remain an important task for urban planners and managers.

Rachel Meltzer is the Plimpton Associate Professor of Planning and Urban Economics at Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design. Her research is broadly concerned with urban economies and how market and policy forces can shape disparate outcomes across neighborhoods. She focuses on issues related to economic development, housing, land use, and local public finance.

Dr. Meltzer is the co-author of the textbook, Policy Analysis as Problem Solving (Routledge 2018), and has published her research in top policy, economics, and urban planning journals. Her research has been supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, Social Science Research Council, the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the Kauffman Foundation.

Dr. Meltzer earned her doctorate in Public Policy and M.P.A. from the Wagner Graduate School at New York University and a B.A. in Psychology and Mathematics from Dartmouth College.